Scenarios for the future of India; and the world- Author Arun Maira

Released on 17 March 2021, Arun Maira's new book "A billion Fireflies: Critical Conversations to Shape a New Post-pandemic World" is all about stirring a conversation amongst concerned people to develop innovative solutions for the trajectory of economic progress.

Making predictions of economic growth of nations is a lucrative initiative; BRICS being a bright example of how the growth forecast had a large impact on public imagination and corporate investments; industry leaders in World Economic Forum were wary.

In fact, extrapolating the remarkable post-war performance in 1980s, the prediction was that 21st century would be Japan's triumph. Few had predicted collapse of Soviet Union & foresaw China's economic ascent. In the next decade, Soviet Union was history; investors flocked China.

On the other hand, this prediction was accurately achieved by strategic thinkers at the Shell Oil Company using methods of "scenario planning" and Shell redirected billions of dollars of investments beforehand to gain strategic advantage over its competition.

The foundational discipline of scenario planning, which distinguishes it from conventional forecasting is "systems thinking" which does not begin with data but starts with diverse points of view about what is goin\g on in a complex system to understand the undercurrents.

Systems scenarios include subjective perceptions of poverty and inequality and also mistrust in institutions of governance; which are only considered as "externalities" in economists quantitative models and was used in 2005 to analyze condition of the shining Indian economy.



1. 'India getting stuck' draws attention to how lack of effective leadership in corruption, insufficient planning and lack of political will can create continuous problems for the country.

2.'Bolly World' describes how initial success in India will lead to domestic, social and demographic pressures which soon trigger an economic reversal. India focuses on becoming a global power; does not execute the deep reforms in key areas & instead relies on IT and services.

3. 'India First' describes a unified India where people put the needs of their community and country first. strong regional relationships and equitable growth lift India into a virtuous cycle of sustained economic growth, balanced development and global integration.

The author believes that India and the world must promote the third scenario in G-20 and drive local systems solutions to solve global problems.

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