Article: "The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future"

Found this fascinating article in Foreign Affairs by a former professor at the prestigious school that educates top leaders in the Chinese Communist Party. Looks at Xi's power in the leadup to the National Congress this October:

"The feat of gaining a third term would not mollify those within the CCP who resent his accumulation of power and reject his cult of personality, nor would it solve his growing legitimacy problem among the people."

Xi's leadership is not threatened for the moment, but that could change if China invades Taiwan. A failed invasion would turn party and people against Xi and his authority would crumble.

"Even in China, it takes more than sheer force and intimidation to stay in power; performance still matters. Mao and Deng earned their authority through accomplishments—Mao by liberating China from the Nationalists, and Deng by opening it up and unleashing an economic boom."

"In the months leading up to the congress, the CCP’s stealth infighting will probably intensify. Xi could order more arrests and more trials of high-ranking officials, and his critics could leak more information and spread more rumors."

The myth of Xi as highly competent and smart is undone by the author's knowledge of the inside of the CCP and how it works. Xi rose to power via patronage and his father being well-known. His mother would write letters to top people to get him jobs.

Bottom line: As with all totalitarian leaders, the only way he can stay in power is to become more extreme, more controlling, more paranoid. Even if he gets the third term, we shouldn't underestimate how much actual division and dissent there is within the party.