He doesn’t have a Wikipedia page, and only occasionally gives interviews.

But Kiril Sokoloff has a remarkable record in picking the big changes and anomalies in economies and markets. He’s a prolific reader and student of history, and ignores the mass media.

In the late 1970s, when America seemed to be becoming a high-tax country, he foresaw that a new tax-cutting and deregulation political agenda in the US would lead to an economic boom.

In the early 1980s, after the boom led to inflation and stock prices were depressed, Sokoloff again went against the consensus. The world would enter a period of low inflation, he said, that would fuel an equities bull market.

Sokoloff’s next big (and correct) bet was the rise of China, expressed in his 1992 article China Awakens: The Premier Investment Opportunity of the 1990s? He started the first Asian hedge fund to capitalize on the opportunity.

In the mid-90s Sokoloff began warning that Asian stock markets were overheated, and that crises in Asia would spread to developed markets, causing a bear market and a tech bust. All this happened.

After the tech crash, in 2001, he began arguing the case for gold, which was selling at a very low $262. In the decade that followed came a bull market in gold and commodities, and he became a big investor in oil.

The fact that commodity prices were growing, despite a recession, was the beginning of Sokoloff’s theory of anomalies, looking for when what should be happening, is not happening - or when what is not happening, should be.

“I have always been most comfortable when I am alone in an investment decision and no one agrees with me. Much of my 30-plus years in the investment business has been spent developing tools that help me think in an original way.” Kiril Sokoloff

In 2015, Sokoloff saw another paradigm shift. Deflationary trends were reaching a ridiculous point (e.g. negative interest deposit accounts). The result would be a fall in equities (inflated by low interest rates), and resurgence of assets punished in this environment e.g. gold.