Why World War Can Easily Happen Again

Early 1914: Europe has not seen a major conflict in 140 years. The world economy is never more integrated. Then WW1, with 16 million dead. A British intellectual's theory on "prosperity = peace" lies in tatters.

In 1910, English intellectual Norman Angell publishes The Great Illusion. The bestseller debunks the idea that rich countries have to go to war and expand their territories. Wealth is dependent on commerce, not on land.

“For a modern nation to add to its territory, no more adds to the wealth of the people of such nation than it would add to the wealth of Londoners if the City of London were to annex the county of Hertford.” - Normal Angell

In the 1910s, the world has never been more peaceful, prosperous, or connected. A world war would be stupidest thing, says Angell. In a interconnected global system, war over land makes no sense. Yet after Sarajevo, the major powers slide into war. A bloodbath ensues.

Yet Angell was still right on why nations go to war: “when their blood is up” or to restore lost pride or reverse a humiliation. eg. pre-War Germany, jealous of Britain’s colonies, dominions, trading prowess, had begun a large military buildup.

In 2013, The Economist noted the eerie parallels between today’s ever-closer economic interdependence and the period prior to 1914. Perhaps we had taken on an Angellian mindset, and were too complacent? Two months later Putin’s Russian army seized Crimea in sovereign Ukraine.

The cheery liberal consensus had been that no contemporary leader would be mad enough to risk his country’s economy, credit rating and international standing for the sake of some new territory - and yet it happened.

Today's pundit-consensus is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would make no sense politically or economically. And a direct Iranian attack on Israel would be an insane shooting-itself-in-the-foot.

Yet either could happen.

“Righting a historical wrong” and “regaining what is rightly its own” have always been drivers of war:

- China and Taiwan are “all one people”

- Ukraine and Russia are “one people”

- Jews/Muslims "don't belong" in Palestine

Bottom line:

A long run of peace, rising prosperity, and greater interconnectedness are willingly sacrificed to the sake of national-historical goals. War making no rational sense has never been an obstacle to it happening.