What are China's real intentions?
Nov 06, 2020 · 2 mins read
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Successive US administrations, from Nixon to Trump, have had a policy of constructive engagement with China.
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The idea of China’s ‘peaceful rise’ is perpetuated by Western policy experts, think tanks, academia, and even business. It allows people to profit from engagement with China without admitting the real nature of China’s intentions.
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The consensus has been that China “will gradually evolve to more resemble America”. The growth of Western consumer brands in China such Starbucks, McDonald’s, and Apple seem to suggest China becoming a prosperous, peaceful and hopefully democratic power.
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Michael Pillsbury, a China adviser to US governments since the 1980s, says this is a mistake. China has no intention of liberalizing, either politically or economically. In fact, as China grows richer, the Communist Party is likely to increase its power.
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There is a moderate group of Chinese policy experts who go along with the ‘peaceful rise’ story. But to hard-core Chinese nationalists (known as ying pai – ‘hawks’ or ‘eagles’), the moderates don’t represent the real China.
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These nationalists call for China to become the No. 1 economic, military and political power in the world by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party coming to power.
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This plan is known as the ‘Hundred Year Marathon’. A key part of the plan is that it must be denied: “the first rule of the Marathon is that you do not talk about the Marathon.” Yet the ambition is clear for anyone who cares to look.
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China likes to play up its peaceful Confucian heritage, yet the country’s nationalists take their cue from the strategies of the Warring States period. The classic book from this period is Sun Tzu’s Art of War. It says: victory comes through patience, concealing intentions, and s
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Initiatives such as the Belt and Road trade network and the Asian Infrastructure Bank also seek to buttress China’s power through investment and economic patronage. It’s a version of the old Tianxia system where states gave tribute to China in return for protection and order.
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Chairman Mao had a favorite book, The General Mirror for the Aid of Government, from the Warring States period. It includes the quote: “There cannot be two suns in the sky.” For the nationalists this means: There can only be one hegemon, and by 2049 it won’t be the United States.
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