60 years to a new monetary standard

People view Bitcoin as just another technology, but it's much more than that. Bitcoin is a technologically driven socio-economic transformation, and with that comes both massive benefits and hurdles.

Becoming global money will not be easy. Bitcoin will face many headwinds, and the journey will be lined with corpses. It takes time to achieve critical mass, and there will be pushback from incumbents. But nothing great was ever achieved without sacrifice

The Three Generations Theory explains that large-scale socio-economic shifts take generations to settle in and normalize. The old guard needs to die so that those born into the new paradigm can lead.

Generation One of Bitcoin is about monetisation. To do this, Bitcoin needs to behave like a virus, the host being the economy and state. Bitcoin must form a symbiotic relationship with the host as it grows, creating mutual benefits for both the hosts and the virus.

We're still in Gen 1, the infection stage. Bitcoin proved that someone would trade money or goods for it. Now it’s being speculated upon. That will last another 5 years while people continue to treat it as a "risk-on" asset, and then we reach Gen 2.

Gen Two is about tooling and infrastructure. People born after Bitcoin was created will view it as a standard to use, both as monetary & communications infra. In this phase, Bitcoin’s volatility will have dampened, and the longer we go, the less it will be viewed as speculative

For much of Generation Two, the previous generation will still be pulling the purse strings. They will fight to hang onto the past despite everything that's going on. But as with all paradigm shifts, they will lose.

Gen 3 is where mass adoption occurs. Our children's children will not know of a world in which Bitcoin didn't exist and may even enter adulthood absent of fiat. At this stage, Bitcoin becomes a global settlement layer and the global money.

Strap in, and prepare for a bumpy ride. Our generation is not meant to enjoy the fruits of this labour. We lay the foundation and our descendants will build upon them. That’s the price we pay for the privilege of being the founding fathers. 

Remember. Bitcoin is so much more than just a technology. With each day that passes it compounds and grows. It will take a few generations to normalize, become the new paradigm our children’s children operate from.

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