A near-zero energy and labor cost future?

A friend asked me, as a technology investor, what I have been thinking about in terms of the most significant trends we’ll see play out this decade. He also asked if there was an easy way to capitalize on them. I’ll come to that, but first the trends 👇

One of the most profound trends that few are talking about is preparing for the exponential age where energy and labor costs collapse to zero.

Right now everyone is talking about how expensive energy is. There seems to be a “cost of living crisis” and an energy price shock reminiscent of the 1970s. It’s always hard to see beyond current crisis to the future, and the fog of war doesn’t help.

No one is thinking what the world would look like when incremental energy costs go down to zero as the costs of solar + battery storage dramatically fall. A revolution is underway in which the average person can not only have their own home energy source, but even make money.

This race to zero cost will be an energy shock of a different kind. It will change civilizations and the international order as we know it. That’s an order built on scarce, costly ($$ + planet) resources, giving way to one based on abundant green energy.

Just imagine for a second what the world would look like with: 1) extremely cheap or free energy; 2) AI and robots taking care of basic tasks and human needs. 

That will basically liberate humans from uncreative tasks. Free energy and more time means greater scope for learning, for creative output, for exercise and well-being, for travel and adventure. A better life at lower cost, basically.

Through the companies I’ve founded and worked for in the consumer internet space, I’ve been trained to think in terms of incremental vs nominal costs . With the advent of the internet, we've witnessed how the marginal cost of distribution for information and goods collapsed.

This drove a massive wave of innovations in the media and commerce space in the past 20 years that resulted in many products we rely on daily now. I could only imagine what a near-zero energy and labor cost future would do to innovations and standard of living globally.

The technology behind both trends is already fast developing. E.g. Tesla has spent years working on lowering the costs battery storage (at scale) and developing human-like neural networks for its autonomous vehicle fleet, which puts them in a leading position to win this race.