A Twitter thread by Raoul Pal

Growth Implosion - Brace! Ok, whirlwind chart tour of why I think the economy is on the edge of a cliff and what it means for assets.... 🧵 Regional Fed Serves are suggesting ISM gets down to near 50 (more data to come this week). ISM means low growth but <47 means recession. https://t.co/fbUb7Re0b7

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But New Orders leads ISM and that is worse... https://t.co/yqPL4573IF

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But when we use more forward-looking indicators, things get real ugly... fast. ISM Inventories to New Orders (inventories are too high for demand!). ISM 42 in next three months? https://t.co/Lhji4ORid8

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Our GMI Economic Confidence Indicator has hit 35 in ISM terms... https://t.co/mjXFj8tWgp

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Regional Fed New Orders survey are pricing forward ISM at 30... Demand Destruction! https://t.co/A8ARs4A8jl

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PPI is pricing forward ISM at 35...Demand Destruction! https://t.co/ttXuZCbjj0

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Optimism minus Wage increases in pricing ISM sub 30! https://t.co/K2ADidkI9M

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Same with 30 year mortgage rates - Demand Destruction! https://t.co/hVZiMSZTdp

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Real Personal Income is another... https://t.co/7aYuNcuQfo

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I could show you another 20 charts but you get the picture. This is our best Leading Index at GMI currently... it takes into account rate of change of rates, dollar and commodities and suggests the monetary condition are too damned tight! GS Fin Condition index lags this. ISM 35 https://t.co/FNXQ4R0iXv

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A Twitter thread by Raoul Pal

Part 1